Introduction

As the Russia–Ukraine war moves toward its fourth year, its impact is increasingly being felt beyond the battlefield. What began as a regional conflict has evolved into a global economic shockwave that is reshaping supply chains, raising prices, and pressuring governments to rewrite trade rules.

For law firms, this conflict has created one of the most complex commercial and regulatory landscapes in recent memory. Clients now need help navigating sanctions, adjusting contracts, managing disputes, and assessing geopolitical risk areas that sit at the core of legal practice.

Energy & Infrastructure: A System Under Pressure

Energy has become one of the war’s main pressure points. In 2025, the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil (Russian owned oil companies) to restrict the revenue funding Russia’s military. The impact, however, was limited: Russia quickly redirected much of its oil to Asian buyers, softening the blow.

Ukraine has taken a different approach by targeting Russia’s infrastructure directly. It's a 221-drone strike on Primorsk, Russia’s most extensive Baltic oil terminal, that temporarily halted operations and damaged two Aframax tankers. With the port handling over 1 million barrels of crude per day, the attack delivered both economic disruption and a symbolic message.

Such hits to major energy hubs trigger supply chain delays, missed delivery obligations, insurance disputes, and force majeure claims, all of which involve legal teams immediately.

Ukraine later struck the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Hungary and Slovakia. Both countries had resisted an EU-wide phase-out of Russian oil, and the attack highlighted growing tensions within Europe over energy security and solidarity.

For businesses operating across Central and Eastern Europe, this uncertainty creates real commercial risk: shifting sanctions rules, unstable supply routes, and the need for rapid regulatory guidance.

Russia then escalated the situation by reopening the occupied ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk to foreign vessels. Ukraine condemned the move as a violation of UNCLOS and called for sanctions on any ships using the ports, urging the IMO to intervene.

For shipping companies, traders, and insurers, this creates a legal minefield. Conflicting claims over port legality mean a single misstep could result in sanctions breaches, frozen assets, or cancelled insurance cover, making specialist compliance advice essential.

Financial Impact

The war has hit Ukraine’s economy hard. Export capacity collapsed as factories, rail lines, and ports were damaged. In 2022 alone:

  • Exports dropped 30%
  • Imports fell 32.6%, except for essential wartime supplies
  • Grain shipments to key buyers like Egypt and Ethiopia fell dramatically

Russia faced restrictions, too, but it adapted. Western sanctions pushed Moscow to deepen ties with China, India, and Türkiye. As European markets reduced Russian imports, Asian demand increased, allowing Russia to export raw materials, fuels, fertilisers, and cereals to grow despite sanctions.

Meanwhile, global markets were shaken by price volatility. Maize rose by over 24%, palladium increased 4.4%, and fuel trading dipped due to shortages.

Why this matters:

Businesses must adjust supply chains, renegotiate contracts, and ensure compliance with sanctions and export controls. These challenges create sustained demand for legal expertise across trade, regulatory, and commercial practices.

How Law Firms Are Responding

Law firms are deeply entrenched in the commercial fallout, particularly in:

  • Sanctions and compliance: Interpreting fast-changing U.S., UK, and EU rules.
  • Corporate exits: Supporting global companies withdrawing from Russia (e.g., BP, Visa, McDonald’s).
  • Contract disputes: Managing force majeure claims, delivery failures, and supply chain breakdowns.
  • Investment restructuring: Advising on divestments and winding down operations.
  • EU–Ukraine relations: Assisting with updates to the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.
  • Geopolitical risk advisory: Helping clients respond to market volatility and regulatory changes.
  • International litigation: Firms such as Covington and Quinn Emanuel represent Ukraine at the ICJ in cases involving war crimes and treaty breaches.

Future Outlook

The war is likely to continue shaping global trade for years. Developing countries face higher import costs, limited market access, and volatility in food and energy prices. One proposed solution is broader trade liberalisation, allowing countries to diversify suppliers and rebuild disrupted supply chains.

However, this could also deepen geopolitical competition between Western nations and rapidly modernising developing economies. For businesses and the law firms advising them, the coming years will involve navigating a more fragmented, politically sensitive, and legally complex global trading system.